SVR Predicted Time 4 Miler

SVR Predicted Time 4 Miler
Saturday 24 February 2007
Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club, Winchester, VA
Results by Karsten Brown

Runners often rely on their watches to help themselves set a pace and reach specific time goals. But what happens when runners are deprived of their precious watches? That was the premise of the Predicted Time 4 Miler, held on Saturday 24 February outside of Winchester, Virginia. Before the race, each runner wrote down a prediction of how fast they thought they would cover the rolling out-and-back course. Then they ran the race without stopwatches or other time cues, and the runners whose finish times came the closest to their pre-race predictions got first crack at the prize table. As hard as it sounds to be able to predict one's finish time accurately, over a third of this year's field of fifty-three participants came within twenty seconds of their guesses!

While nobody managed to match their predicted time exactly, two 58-year-olds finished within two seconds of their pre-race guesses. First-time participant Stephen Armstrong of Winchester originally wrote down 32:00 as his predicted finish time, but he returned to the registration table a few minutes later and changed it to 33:00-- a fortuitous decision in light of his eventual 32:58 finish. The other top guesser was veteran runner Bill Senseney of Charles Town, whose excellent 28:22 performance nearly matched his guess of 28:20. Jim Harden of Martinsburg wound up with the third best prediction result, finishing four seconds faster than his 35:15 target. And six runners were off by just five seconds: Robert Gurtler, Mary Leigh, Peter Mattens, Stephen Meier, Judy Pollard, and Duane Williamson.

The race's cheap prizes were awarded based on the time predictions, but runners were also competing against each other in the traditional sense, with many trying to solidify their position in the standings of the eight-race Shenandoah Valley Runners Winter Series. On the men's side of the race, 24-year-old Charles Bowles of Boyce put together a commanding performance, taking the lead half a mile into the race and never looking back. A gap of maybe ten seconds over 32-year-old Karsten Brown at the turnaround became a sizeable thirty-seven second margin by the time Bowles crossed the finish line in 23:12. Last year's winner, 40-year-old Brad Rippey of Bunker Hill, WV, took third place in 24:09, followed just under a minute later by another Bunker Hill resident, 29-year-old Stephen Meier. Winchester's Raymond Bollock, 41, rounded out the top five in 25:22.

With women's course record holder Brenda Schrank, 35, in attendance, there was zero doubt as to which of the seventeen female participants would finish first. And Schrank did not disappoint, setting a new course record with her 26:05 win. Youngsters took three of the next four spots in the women's top five. 13-year-old Presley Parkes, a straight-A student at Byrd Middle School in Winchester, finished second in 28:59. 12-year-old Brittany Pollard of Falling Waters, WV placed third in 31:01, which was enough to vault her back into the overall Winter Series lead. 15-year-old Alyssa Meadows of Martinsburg also moved up in the series standings, thanks to her 33:56 fifth place finish. Winchester's Vicky Krossman, 37, crossed the line between Pollard and Meadows in 33:12, while 41-year-old Shelley Klee was the top Masters woman in 37:15.

For no real reason other than the race's "prediction" theme, the numbered cards handed out at the finish line contained a multiple-choice poll question asking runners to forecast which film would win Best Picture at the following day's Academy Awards ceremony. The poll ended in a three way tie, with The Departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, and Little Miss Sunshine garnering nine votes each. The Departed wound up as the big Oscar winner, so kudos to the nine runners who picked it: Patrick Barrett, Robie Cone, Peggy Duvall, Myron Kremer, Mitchell Lippy, Stephen Meier, Presley Parkes, Bill Senseney, and Duane Williamson!

Terry Leckie did his usual fine job in his fourth year as Predicted Time race director, with assistance from volunteers Gail Bollock, Alexander Snyder, Nancy Bullock, Joel McKenzie, Myron Kremer, and Karsten Brown. The race also benefitted from the hospitality of the Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club, whose employees and patrons were once again nice enough to put up with a crowd of runners clogging up their entranceway for a couple hours. With any luck we'll be back at Stonebrook next year for another running of the Predicted Time 4 Miler!

(COURSE NOTE: While following the same route as in past years, the course was remeasured this year for greater accuracy. The course had originally been measured in 2004 with the SVR's measuring wheel, a device which was later determined to be off by a little over fifty extra feet per mile. Thus, this year's remeasurement resulted in a course which was 220 feet shorter than the ~4.04 mile course used from 2004 to 2006.)

RacePacket Home | Prediction Results

OVERALL RESULTS

#   NAME                   AGE SEX CITY, STATE          TIME     PACE  IN SEX  POLL: BEST PICTURE PICK?
1.  Charles Bowles          24  M  Boyce, VA            23:12    5:48   1st    Hogan Knows Best
2.  Karsten Brown           32  M  Front Royal, VA      23:49    5:57   2nd    Basic Instinct 2
3.  Brad Rippey             40  M  Bunker Hill, WV      24:09    6:02   3rd    Babel
4.  Stephen Meier           29  M  Bunker Hill, WV      25:05    6:16   4th    The Departed
5.  Raymond Bollock         41  M  Winchester, VA       25:22    6:21   5th
6.  Bill Blackstone         40  M  Winchester, VA       25:41    6:25   6th    Little Miss Sunshine
7.  Mike Meadows            49  M  Martinsburg, WV      25:55    6:29   7th
8.  Brenda Schrank          35  F  Winchester, VA       26:05    6:31   1st    The Queen
9.  Duane Williamson        43  M  Warrenton, VA        26:20    6:35   8th    The Departed
10. Jason Page              62  M  Hamilton, VA         27:26    6:52   9th
11. Bill Senseney           58  M  Charles Town, WV     28:22    7:06   10th   The Departed
12. Jonathan Bellingham     44  M  Capon Springs, WV    28:40    7:10   11th
13. Presley Parkes          13  F  Winchester, VA       28:59    7:15   2nd    The Departed
14. Glenn Gravatt           49  M  Harpers Ferry, WV    29:19    7:20   12th   Raising Arizona
15. Chris Quasebarth        47  M  Winchester, VA       30:22    7:36   13th   Letters from Iwo Jima
16. Craig Richard           37  M  Winchester, VA       30:28    7:37   14th   Letters from Iwo Jima
17. Brittany Pollard        12  F  Falling Waters, WV   31:01    7:45   3rd    Little Miss Sunshine
18. Tony Werner             36  M  Winchester, VA       31:15    7:49   15th
19. Randy Wingfield         61  M  Winchester, VA       31:36    7:54   16th
20. Jon Palks               57  M  Bowie, MD            31:40    7:55   17th   American Hardcore
21. Patrick Barrett         14  M  Rileyville, VA       31:49    7:57   18th   The Departed
22. Denny Myers             52  M  Stephens City, VA    31:57    7:59   19th
23. Peter Mattens           34  M  Winchester, VA       32:35    8:09   20th   The Queen
24. Michael Triantafillou   47  M  Winchester, VA       32:36    8:09   21st
25. Myron Kremer            49  M  Winchester, VA       32:52    8:13   22nd   The Departed
26. Stephen Armstrong       58  M  Winchester, VA       32:58    8:15   23rd
27. Vicky Krossman          37  F  Winchester, VA       33:12    8:18   4th
28. Tom Aldstadt            47  M  Winchester, VA       33:33    8:23   24th
29. Alyssa Meadows          15  F  Martinsburg, WV      33:56    8:29   5th
30. Jim Harden              35  M  Martinsburg, WV      35:11    8:48   25th
31. George Dupuy            29  M  Luray, VA            35:21    8:50   26th   Little Miss Sunshine
32. John Bannister          58  M  Haymarket, VA        36:00    9:00   27th   Letters from Iwo Jima
33. Terry McCarthy          71  M  Leesburg, VA         36:23    9:06   28th   The Queen
34. Glenn Luttrell          64  M  Winchester, VA       36:51    9:13   29th   Letters from Iwo Jima
35. Shelley Klee            41  F  Winchester, VA       37:15    9:19   6th    Little Miss Sunshine
36. Paul Grosz              57  M  Stephens City, VA    37:48    9:27   30th   Letters from Iwo Jima
37. Ellie Hamilton          55  F  Winchester, VA       37:58    9:30   7th    Little Miss Sunshine
38. Stephen Hott-Bellingham 10  M  Capon Springs, WV    38:25    9:36   31st
39. Margaret Tice           48  F  Charles Town, WV     38:28    9:37   8th    Letters from Iwo Jima
40. Cristina Meier          30  F  Bunker Hill, WV      38:44    9:41   9th    Letters from Iwo Jima
41. Mitchell Lippy          12  M  Winchester, VA       38:53    9:43   32nd   The Departed
42. Heather Lark-Rickard    34  F  Stephens City, VA    38:59    9:45   10th   Little Miss Sunshine
43. Peggy Duvall            49  F  Winchester, VA       39:41    9:55   11th   The Departed
44. Robert Gurtler          72  M  The Plains, VA       39:55    9:59   33rd   Little Miss Sunshine
45. Nancy Specht            54  F  Bunker Hill, WV      40:12   10:03   12th   Jack*** Number Two
46. Judy Pollard            37  F  Falling Waters, WV   41:18   10:20   13th   Facing The Giants
47. Mary Leigh              26  F  Winchester, VA       41:22   10:21   14th   Letters from Iwo Jima
48. Carol Culvyhouse        43  F  Inwood, WV           42:44   10:41   15th   Little Miss Sunshine
49. Colleen Snyder          50  F  Linden, VA           46:55   11:44   16th   Little Miss Sunshine
50. Jeannette Shaffer       37  F  Gore, VA             47:47   11:57   17th
51. Bob Atkins              81  M  Winchester, VA       55:04   13:46   34th   Letters from Iwo Jima
52. Tom Tipp                62  M  Midlothian, VA       57:44   14:26   35th
53. Robie Cone              83  M  Berryville, VA     1:07:20   16:50   36th   The Departed

PREDICTION RESULTS

Upon signing up for the race, each runner was asked to predict his or her eventual finish time. Watches could not be worn during the race. Prizes were given to the runners whose actual times came the closest to their pre-race predictions.

#   NAME                   AGE SEX CITY, STATE        PREDICTED  ACTUAL  DIFFERENCE     O'ALL  IN SEX
1.  Bill Senseney           58  M  Charles Town, WV     28:20    28:22   low by 0:02    11th   10th
    Stephen Armstrong       58  M  Winchester, VA       33:00    32:58   high by 0:02   26th   23rd
3.  Jim Harden              35  M  Martinsburg, WV      35:15    35:11   high by 0:04   30th   25th
4.  Stephen Meier           29  M  Bunker Hill, WV      25:00    25:05   low by 0:05    4th    4th
    Duane Williamson        43  M  Warrenton, VA        26:25    26:20   high by 0:05   9th    8th
    Peter Mattens           34  M  Winchester, VA       32:30    32:35   low by 0:05    23rd   20th
    Robert Gurtler          72  M  The Plains, VA       40:00    39:55   high by 0:05   44th   33rd
    Judy Pollard            37  F  Falling Waters, WV   41:13    41:18   low by 0:05    46th   13th
    Mary Leigh              26  F  Winchester, VA       41:17    41:22   low by 0:05    47th   14th
10. Raymond Bollock         41  M  Winchester, VA       25:15    25:22   low by 0:07    5th    5th
11. Randy Wingfield         61  M  Winchester, VA       31:24    31:36   low by 0:12    19th   16th
    Nancy Specht            54  F  Bunker Hill, WV      40:00    40:12   low by 0:12    45th   12th
13. Karsten Brown           32  M  Front Royal, VA      23:35    23:49   low by 0:14    2nd    2nd
    Brad Rippey             40  M  Bunker Hill, WV      23:55    24:09   low by 0:14    3rd    3rd
    Cristina Meier          30  F  Bunker Hill, WV      38:30    38:44   low by 0:14    40th   9th
    Carol Culvyhouse        43  F  Inwood, WV           42:30    42:44   low by 0:14    48th   15th
17. Mike Meadows            49  M  Martinsburg, WV      26:10    25:55   high by 0:15   7th    7th
18. Peggy Duvall            49  F  Winchester, VA       40:00    39:41   high by 0:19   43rd   11th
19. Charles Bowles          24  M  Boyce, VA            23:32    23:12   high by 0:20   1st    1st
20. Bob Atkins              81  M  Winchester, VA       55:26    55:04   high by 0:22   51st   34th
21. Glenn Luttrell          64  M  Winchester, VA       37:15    36:51   high by 0:24   34th   29th
22. Jon Palks               57  M  Bowie, MD            32:06    31:40   high by 0:26   20th   17th
23. Jason Page              62  M  Hamilton, VA         26:52    27:26   low by 0:34    10th   9th
24. Jonathan Bellingham     44  M  Capon Springs, WV    28:05    28:40   low by 0:35    12th   11th
25. Chris Quasebarth        47  M  Winchester, VA       31:00    30:22   high by 0:38   15th   13th
26. Glenn Gravatt           49  M  Harpers Ferry, WV    29:59    29:19   high by 0:40   14th   12th
27. Bill Blackstone         40  M  Winchester, VA       25:00    25:41   low by 0:41    6th    6th
28. Paul Grosz              57  M  Stephens City, VA    38:30    37:48   high by 0:42   36th   30th
29. Shelley Klee            41  F  Winchester, VA       38:00    37:15   high by 0:45   35th   6th
30. Brenda Schrank          35  F  Winchester, VA       25:12    26:05   low by 0:53    8th    1st
    Denny Myers             52  M  Stephens City, VA    31:04    31:57   low by 0:53    22nd   19th
32. George Dupuy            29  M  Luray, VA            34:15    35:21   low by 1:06    31st   26th
33. Alyssa Meadows          15  F  Martinsburg, WV      32:40    33:56   low by 1:16    29th   5th
    John Bannister          58  M  Haymarket, VA        34:44    36:00   low by 1:16    32nd   27th
35. Myron Kremer            49  M  Winchester, VA       31:30    32:52   low by 1:22    25th   22nd
36. Craig Richard           37  M  Winchester, VA       31:55    30:28   high by 1:27   16th   14th
37. Heather Lark-Rickard    34  F  Stephens City, VA    40:32    38:59   high by 1:33   42nd   10th
38. Jeannette Shaffer       37  F  Gore, VA             46:00    47:47   low by 1:47    50th   17th
39. Vicky Krossman          37  F  Winchester, VA       35:20    33:12   high by 2:08   27th   4th
40. Presley Parkes          13  F  Winchester, VA       26:45    28:59   low by 2:14    13th   2nd
41. Tom Aldstadt            47  M  Winchester, VA       31:08    33:33   low by 2:25    28th   24th
42. Michael Triantafillou   47  M  Winchester, VA       30:10    32:36   low by 2:26    24th   21st
43. Mitchell Lippy          12  M  Winchester, VA       36:00    38:53   low by 2:53    41st   32nd
44. Margaret Tice           48  F  Charles Town, WV     41:36    38:28   high by 3:08   39th   8th
45. Stephen Hott-Bellingham 10  M  Capon Springs, WV    35:10    38:25   low by 3:15    38th   31st
46. Patrick Barrett         14  M  Rileyville, VA       28:31    31:49   low by 3:18    21st   18th
47. Colleen Snyder          50  F  Linden, VA           43:02    46:55   low by 3:53    49th   16th
48. Brittany Pollard        12  F  Falling Waters, WV   27:00    31:01   low by 4:01    17th   3rd
49. Ellie Hamilton          55  F  Winchester, VA       45:00    37:58   high by 7:02   37th   7th
50. Terry McCarthy          71  M  Leesburg, VA         44:00    36:23   high by 7:37   33rd   28th
51. Tony Werner             36  M  Winchester, VA       39:00    31:15   high by 7:45   18th   15th
52. Robie Cone              83  M  Berryville, VA     1:20:00  1:07:20   high by 12:40  53rd   36th
53. Tom Tipp                62  M  Midlothian, VA       42:00    57:44   low by 15:44   52nd   35th

NOTES: 5th year held at Stonebrook Racquet & Fitness Club. Weather at race time (9:30 AM): 31°, sunny, breeze from the WNW at 10 mph. Course: Wheel-measured out-and-back route on continuously rolling paved roads through the Stonebrook Farms community. Results and report by Karsten Brown.